Memorial Day is just five weeks away, and if you haven't locked in your travel yet, the window is closing fast.
The Iran conflict has rattled oil markets in ways that are showing up at every point in the travel chain: at the pump, at the airport gate, and in the hidden fees on your hotel bill. It's a slow, steady squeeze, and the summer peak will make it even worse.
Here's where things stand — and what you can actually do about it.
What's happening to airfares?
Airlines were already operating on thin margins before the war. Now jet fuel accounts for roughly 30 percent of their operating costs, a roughly 8 percent increase, and that number keeps moving in the wrong direction.
United Airlines bumped its domestic pricing by 15 to 20 percent in early spring. Average domestic round trips are tracking around $340 to $360 per person, up roughly 18 percent from last year at this time. International economy fares are higher, at least on some popular routes. Tickets from the United States to Europe that were $700 in February are now pushing well past $900, in some cases over $1,000, to popular destinations.
The silver lining, such as it is: Award pricing hasn't tracked upward as sharply as cash fares. If you've been hoarding miles, this is definitely the summer to use them. Mileage redemption rates on domestic routes have stayed relatively stable even as cash prices climb, but beware of fuel surcharges or "carrier-imposed fees," as the airlines like to call them.
What to do:
Book now. The advice you'll hear from every fare-tracking tool—Google Flights, Hopper, Kayak—is the same right now: Prices are probably not going down before Memorial Day. Book what you can afford today.
Aim for late summer or shoulder season. If your schedule has any flexibility, mid-August through September is historically when domestic demand drops and fares follow. You'll likely pay less, deal with smaller crowds, and find better availability.
Stick to major hubs. Smaller regional airports are getting squeezed on fuel supply and staffing. Big hubs like Chicago O'Hare, Dallas/Fort Worth, and Atlanta Hartsfield have more flight options and more price competition.
Check the train. On routes under 500 miles, Amtrak can undercut airfare significantly this summer, with none of the fuel surcharge volatility. The Northeast Corridor is an obvious example, but Chicago to Detroit, Seattle to Portland, and several California routes are also worth pricing out.
How about gas prices?
The national average for regular unleaded is around $4 to as of late Friday, according to EIA data. That sounds reasonable until you check regional numbers.
California is already above $5.80 in most metro areas. Washington and Oregon are running $5 or more. Hawaii is near $5.50. If your road trip passes through any of these states, you'll need to budget accordingly.
The states where you'll catch a break? Mississippi, Texas, Oklahoma, and much of the South are still around $3.50. If you're routing through those areas, you'll save some money.
The bigger concern is the trajectory of energy costs. Crude oil prices have been creeping up since the Strait of Hormuz shipping disruptions began in March. Historically, the summer driving season, which ramps up around Memorial Day, pushes gas prices to their seasonal peak by late June or early July. If crude stays volatile, we could see the national average climb another 20 to 40 cents before the Fourth of July.
What to do:
Download GasBuddy or use AAA's price tool before long drives. On a road trip filling a 15-gallon tank, finding a station 15 cents cheaper per gallon saves $2.25 each fill-up. Small, but it adds up over a week.
Fill up on Sundays. GasBuddy's 2026 analysis consistently shows Sunday as the cheapest day to buy gas in most U.S. states. Midweek pricing tends to be 5 to 8 cents higher.
Get off the highway. Interstate exit stations charge a convenience premium — sometimes 20 to 30 cents more per gallon than stations three miles off the highway. Worth the detour, time permitting.
Don't prepay fuel on rental cars. It's almost always a losing proposition. Return the tank full from a station you found on your own.
Consider driving off-peak. If you can leave Friday evening or very early Saturday rather than Saturday afternoon, you'll avoid congestion that costs you fuel.
How about rental cars and hotels?
Rental car companies have been quietly raising base rates and adding surcharges. Car sharing apps like Turo and Zipcar can undercut traditional rental rates on shorter trips, especially in cities where you'd otherwise be dealing with airport facility fees that can add 30 to 40 percent on top of the advertised rate.
On the hotel side, some properties near major theme parks and beach destinations are already showing Memorial Day weekend rates at two to three times their normal nightly price. If you haven't booked lodging yet, do it soon, especially if you're heading anywhere near a popular destination.
The global reality check: Gas in Europe is running the equivalent of $7 to $9 a gallon in most countries, and the Middle East instability has added war risk premiums to some routes. If you planned a European driving vacation, this might be the summer for a rail pass. The Eurail system is more affordable than a rental car in this environment, and you don't pay fuel surcharges.
The takeaway: Summer 2026 travel is going to cost more than in 2025 across almost all modes of transportation. The travelers who come out ahead are the ones who book early, burn their miles, stay flexible on dates, and treat the pump like a game: always looking for a better price down the road.
The last word on Spirit’s government bailout
Earlier today, we ran the contrarian argument for a Spirit Airlines rescue, a $360 million, low-interest loan, with one serious string attached: bags fly free.
I want to add the part that column couldn't quite say out loud. The airline industry has trained Washington to treat bailouts as routine maintenance. September 11 happened, so carriers got $15 billion. COVID happened, so they got $54 billion. Now the price of jet fuel is rising, so Spirit is back in line for a handout.
At some point, "temporary" emergency relief stops being emergency anything and starts becoming a permanent subsidy model dressed up in crisis language. The free-market argument only gets deployed when airlines want to block a new competitor or kill a consumer protection rule. When the money runs out, the market suddenly needs a lot of federal help.
If taxpayers are going to keep carrying this industry, they should at least stop paying separately for their luggage.
Your thoughts on the summer travel season?
Are you going to try to book an affordable summer trip now? Or are you planning to stay closer to home? We've spent most of this Consumer Alert talking about higher energy prices—but what's your story? Our comments are open.