As far as summer travel nightmares go, this one ranks right up there: You're at a pump somewhere off the interstate, watching the numbers climb past $90 for a tank that ran you $60 a few weeks ago.

Well, you're not alone.

The University of Michigan's May reading of consumer confidence has hit a new low, and surging gas prices are a big reason why.

But here's a thought worth holding onto as you plan your summer: A record low could be the floor. Markets tend to overshoot in both directions. And as we discussed yesterday, much of the current pain at the pump is tied to a single variable that could change quickly: a peace deal.

If negotiations between the U.S., Israel and Iran produce even a tentative ceasefire in the next few weeks, oil futures will likely fall before the Fourth of July, and pump prices typically follow within 10 to 14 days.

I can’t predict what diplomats will do. But I've covered enough fuel shocks over the years to tell you the pattern is consistent. Prices spike on fear, plateau on uncertainty, and fall once the geopolitical story shifts.

That's the cycle. And we may be closer to the plateau than the peak.

The national average for regular unleaded is sitting above $4 a gallon, and a few markets are pushing toward $5. California is the most expensive state to fill up, followed by Oregon and Hawaii. The cheapest states, mostly in the South, are still around $3 a gallon.

That gap matters if you're planning a road trip. A 1,500-mile route through Mississippi, Alabama and Tennessee will cost you a third less in fuel than the same mileage along the West Coast. Worth a glance at the map before you finalize anything.

You don't have to cancel a vacation. You do have to be a little smarter about it.

PRO TIP: Check your tire pressure. I know, it sounds boring. It also costs you nothing and can improve your fuel economy by 3 percent or more. Underinflated tires are one of the easiest ways to bleed money on a long drive.

I've heard from a lot of readers this past week who are considering canceling, and I understand the impulse. When the news is bad and your fuel budget goes through the roof, the natural reaction is to pull back.

But here's what tends to happen when people skip the trip. The savings get absorbed into other expenses within a few weeks, and the vacation that didn't happen is still gone. The family memories, the breaks from routine, the perspective that comes from being somewhere else for a while, those are not things you can reschedule for the fall and get back.

If your trip is genuinely outside your budget, then scale it down—maybe drive instead of fly. Pick a closer destination. Prepare a few meals at the rental instead of eating out every night. Stay with friends or family. There are a hundred ways to take a real vacation for less money.

What I'd push back on is the idea that you should give it up entirely because the news is scary. The news has been scary before. Remember 9/11? The Great Recession? The pandemic? It will be scary again. And the data we're staring at this week, ugly as it is, is also a sign that we're closer to the bottom than to whatever comes next.

The takeaway: Fill up Sunday, stay off the interstate exits, and don't let a record-low consumer confidence reading talk you out of a trip you've planned for months.

Do we need a new Rule 240, which would require airlines to accept passengers from an airline that goes out of business? We do, but I wouldn't bet on getting it, as I mentioned in this morning’s commentary. Airlines for America will roll out the same talking point it always does when consumer protection comes up: that any new mandate will raise costs for travelers. The airline industry has spent two decades building a business model that depends on the public absorbing every risk, from air traffic control problems to bankruptcy fallout, while it keeps the upside. That needs to end.

Here's a number that doesn't fit neatly with the rest of this week's news: Americans are planning to spend more on summer vacations than they did last year, and 80 percent say they feel happy or excited about it.

That's from the 2026 Holiday Barometer, an annual survey of 1,000 U.S. adults conducted by Europ Assistance and Ipsos for Generali Global Assistance. 

A few numbers worth knowing if you're trying to read the room:

What does this mean for you, the reader staring at a $90 fill-up and wondering if you're the only one going?

You're not. The data says most of your neighbors are doing exactly what you're doing—booking the trip, eating the higher cost, and going. The behavioral economics term for this is "intentional travel," which is what Generali CEO Paul-Adrien Maizener calls it.

But there's a catch buried in the same survey. The top concerns travelers cited were bad weather (44 percent), unplanned delays (40 percent), overcrowding (40 percent), and losing something important (40 percent). 

Notice what's missing? Airline bankruptcy. Geopolitical disruption. Medical emergencies abroad. Those are the things that actually wreck a vacation in 2026, and they're the ones some travel insurance would better  handle.

The 44 percent who plan to buy coverage are probably on the right track. The 56 percent who don't are betting that nothing will go wrong on a $3,545 trip. I'm not sure I'd take that bet. 

PRO TIP: If you're going to buy a policy, buy it within 14 to 21 days of your initial trip deposit. Most insurers tie their best benefits—pre-existing condition waivers, financial default coverage, cancel-for-any-reason upgrades—to that early-purchase window. Wait until the week before you fly, and you've already locked yourself out of the protections that matter most.

The takeaway: If you're spending $3,545 on a summer trip, consider spending another 4 to 8 percent on real travel insurance.

What's your take on this week's news events? Are you going to let high gas prices keep you home this summer—or are you going, anyway? Our comments are open.