Look out! There's car rental trouble ahead
Last summer's auto rental problems may get worse in the weeks ahead. Here's the fix.
It's the summer sequel no one wants — and no one thinks about.
Call it Carpocalypse II: The supply-chain challenges and fleet problems that plagued car rental companies last summer are back again. And if you don't watch out, they could run your next vacation off the road.
"Demand for rental cars will be strong for the summer season, likely even stronger than last summer," Chris Brown, editor of Auto Rental News. "Particularly as tourists have more freedom to travel internationally."
So why is no one thinking about it?
Because ground transportation has always been an afterthought, both for travelers and, ahem, travel journalists. Don't believe me? Just read the comments on the Friday Forum. People aren't worried.
Travelers would rather leave it to chance, and until last summer, that was fine. And travel journalists would rather write about things with wings.
But trust me, Carpocalypse II is coming. And you should be worried.
The origin of this summer's looming car rental crisis is no mystery. But the strategy for dealing with it may not be widely known. Neither is a long-term fix. That won't stop me from offering one.
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Why are we hurtling toward Carpocalypse II?
The problem is deceptively simple. Car rental companies don't have enough vehicles to meet demand this summer. Automakers are channeling supply toward retail and away from rental fleets
Sales to rental companies were down 44 percent in the first quarter of 2022 compared to the first quarter of last year. That's a mind-boggling 70 percent reduction compared to the first quarter of 2019, according to numbers compiled by Auto Rental News.
As a result, you're more likely to get the keys to a high-mileage clunker this summer — if you can find a rental car at all.
"Rental customers should get their reservations in early," Brown told me. "Many companies will be sold out during peak travel times around summer holidays."
But the origins of Carpocalypse II may be more complicated. Car rental companies could never effectively manage their fleets, in part because of their liberal cancellation policies. Gauging car rental demand is harder when customers can make a reservation and walk away without paying a penalty.
Don't get me wrong; I'm not suggesting car rental companies should add any new fees (they have enough). But they can't manage their inventory with the same pinpoint precision that, say, airlines can. And as a result, they didn't see the surge in demand coming last summer, nor are they even sure about this summer.
How to prevent a personal car rental crisis
You can probably imagine what getting stuck in this car rental crisis would look like. It's worse than spending $100+ a day for a subcompact. It's having nothing — no way to get around at all this summer.
To avoid getting caught in the unpleasantness, here are a few strategies:
Think outside the car rental box
In addition to national chains, you'll find local car rental companies that might have inventory this summer. Get out of the Expedia and Priceline box and make calls to local car rental businesses that might have cars at a reasonable rate.
Share a car
If you haven't tried Turo or Getaround, this may be the summer. These businesses operate like Airbnb, but for cars. They aren't perfect solutions, but they are viable alternatives to renting a car. Also, unless you're driving far away, you might want to hail an Uber or Lyft.
Travel somewhere you don't need a car
There are plenty of destinations in the U.S. and abroad where you won't need a car. I'm flying to Athens today, which has a terrific and affordable metro. If you're headed to New York or Chicago, you can skip the rental. Even parts of Los Angeles are easier to access on foot or through mass transit.
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What's the long-term fix for Carpocalypse?
It's too late to do anything for this summer. But maybe we can avoid a third summer sequel in 2023. Another Carpocalypse isn't inevitable.
Maybe the change has to start with us. First, we should stop reserving cars and then not honoring the reservations. I know people who do that as a strategy for getting the best rental, and it's really not fair to the car rental companies or other customers. It's part of the reason we have these problems now. (And I realize that car rental companies sometimes don't honor your reservation, but that's a separate issue that I've also covered. And as my mother says, two wrongs don't make a right.)
We need to change our approach to ground transportation, showing more openness to taking a train, bus, biking or even walking. Businesses like Turo haven't taken off to the same extent as Airbnb because I think Americans are resistant to new ways of getting around. So I think a shift in our attitude might ease the car rental crisis.
And finally — and most importantly — we have to stop treating ground transportation like the ugly stepsister of travel. Sure, it's not as glamorous as the first-class cabins on an international airline, but it's more important than we're willing to admit. This summer, you'll want to start your vacation planning with ground transportation, because it's not a sure thing.
I know, I know. I should follow my advice and start writing about things with wheels more often. Message received.
I'll see you on the road.
What are your thoughts on getting around this summer?
Are you ready to rethink the way you get around on vacation? Or do you think Carpocalypse II will blow over, and everything will go back to normal? There are no wrong answers — please share your comments.
About the art
For this piece, artist Dustin Elliott was inspired by one of his true favorites: early Wassily Kandinsky landscapes. "As I painted,I imagined myself climbing the Alps but then found myself attached to an unstable object," he says. "Oh no! The fulcrum point of this car is totally unpredictable, but my hope was to make it to the very top unscathed and victorious. I wonder what Kandinsky would think of these cliffs and mountains?"
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Chris: I agree with your thoughts on backup options for transport. My wife and I have used trains, buses, and subways often though we still prefer the freedom of rental cars. That was before COVID though. Until COVID is finally more in the review mirror, public transportation - especially anywhere masks are not required and used - is still not worth the chance for those of us 65+ (yes, we are vaccinated/boosted of course) or those with medical risks.
After a flight delay that got them in 9 hours late, it was too late for my daughter and her husband to be picked up by their friend. The last minute car rental at the airport was hugely expensive so they tried Turo. The car had a temporary tag that was expired last month and the windows were blacked out way darker than legally allowed. He had to roll down the window to make a turn. For the price they paid, they won't try that again.